摘要：

对303256份故意伤害罪裁判文书的统计分析表明，故意伤害罪有期徒刑的裁量具有高度规范性，实务中法官的量刑方法遵循了“三步骤”方法的理论内核，量刑起点和基准刑的确定与规范规定保持了高度一致，仅少部分情节的适用与规范略有冲突。严密的规范体系、法官规避决策风险的需求和实务与规范的双向契合为高度规范性的实现提供了前提、动力和实现路径。但在规范未必正确的前提下，高度规范化的量刑反而可能造成错误的重复和经验的萎缩。基于目前的高规范性水平，下一阶段的量刑改革应及时转向，从形式合法的规范化转向实质正当的规范化，建立量刑正当性评价体系；从机械的规范化转向能动的规范化，明确、维持和强化规范与经验并重的双重规则体系。

关键词: 量刑规范性, 量刑影响因素, 正当性评价体系, 双重规则体系

Abstract:

The statistical analysis of 303，256 judgment documents of intentional injury shows that the judgment of fixedterm imprisonment for intentional injury is highly standardized.In practice，the judge’s sentencing method follows the theoretical core of the“threestep”method.The determination of the starting point of sentencing and the benchmark penalty is highly consistent with the norms，merely the application of only a few circumstances conflicts with the norms.The rigorous normative system，the need for judges to avoid decision risk，and the twoway conformity of practice with norms provides the prerequisite，motivation，and realization path for the highly standardized sentencing.However，under the premise that norms may not be correct，highly standardized sentencing may instead lead to the repetition of errors and atrophy of experience.Based on the current high level of standardization，the next stage of sentencing reform should timely turn from formally legal standardization to substantially legitimate standardization by establishing a sentencing legitimacy evaluation system，from mechanical standardization to initiative standardization by defining，maintaining and strengthening a dual rule system constructed by both sentencing norms and experience.

Key words: Standardization of Sentencing, Influence Factors of Sentencing, Legitimacy Evaluation System, Dual Rule System