摘要： 以反思十年前作出的彭宇案一审判决书及其说理为契机，认真对待经验法则，为案件中盖然性较低的经验法则之处理提供理论工具。实务中对经验法则的适用，可以分为常规和弱化两类模式。经验法则的适用以社会上典型的事件经过为核心，根据盖然性高低，通常需要达到日常生活经验法则的标准。在相关经验法则的盖然性不强时，法官有必要通过理论上作为例外的弱化模式，满足其对事实认定确信的说理义务。法官应寻找案件中其他可能的事实线索，只有在排除其他可能时才能依弱化模式认定案情。此时，本证方应就不存在其他可能性提出主张，并且以相对优势标准举证说服法官。

关键词: 经验法则, 盖然性, 表见证明, 裁判说理, 彭宇案

Abstract: After the judgment of the Pengyu Case and its reasoning is reconsidered, it is necessary to supply with some guidance for judges in the future, who have to deal with similar cases from time to time.There should be two models of applying the prima facie evidence, namely the ordinary one and reduced one.The first model has been already taken into consideration, where the application of prima facie evidence is generally allowed, when its possibility is sufficient enough.When these evidences are not enough to support the substantive claim, this ordinary model is then impossible.Nevertheless, the judge should have a theoretical tool like the reduced model of the prima facie evidence, which could help him fulfill his judicial duty to give reasons in civil cases.It is an exception to the ordinary model.The judge shall search for any other possibility with some factual indication in the case.If these possibility can be precluded entirely, the application of prima facie evidence is able to eventually settle the factual disputes.The party who takes the burden of proof is supposed to argue the non-existence of any other possibility, which means shouldering the burden of allegation at the same time, and convince the judge with preponderance of the evidence.

Key words: Prima Facie Evidence, Possibility to Confirm the Factual Allegation, Anscheinbeweis, Judicial Reasoning, Pengyu Case